You take the blue pill, my advice ends you go back to betting moneyline parlays and believe whatever you want to believe, that you were this close to a big payout. In a 10-leg parlay of -900 favorites, the most likely outcome is that exactly one team loses. Multiplying 3.9% by 10 leaves you with a 39% chance that your parlay almost hits, but inevitably fails. Team B, Team C, even Team J in your list of 10 could be the Goliath about to be toppled by David. 0387, or a 3.9% chance of that team being the one that foiled your plans.īut it's not just Team A you have to account for. Multiply a 10% longshot times 90% for every other team.

The chances of Team A losing and costing you the entire parlay? 349 or a 35% chance of this parlay hitting (which matches the implied odds of +187 you get for placing this parlay). Well, if you multiply 90% together 10 times, you get. Pretty simple, right? How often do -900 favorites lose? Let's assume they're all -900 on the moneyline, which is the implied odds of a team with a 90% chance to win. Let's say 10 teams play on the same day that all have a 90% chance to win, and you want to parlay them all together.

'I was almost there! I got 5 out of 6, this one team messed it up.' Want to know why it always feels like the math ain't mathing? Grab a seat, have a listen. The rise of heavily-favored moneyline parlays is often fools' gold. One lack of a kneel down later, the tickets were worth less than the paper they were printed on. This week, David Purdum noted a couple parlays with double-digit legs featuring heavy moneyline favorites in college football last weekend, that unfortunately included the Miami Hurricanes as the final leg. This team is a safe bet.Īs betting becomes more popular across the country, sportsbooks are seeing a rise in moneyline parlays, with bettors selecting an assortment of elite teams to simply win against a supposedly overmatched team. They are just that much better than their opponent. But just a few days later, we look at the odds board for the next week's slate of games and convince ourselves there's no chance a team favored by this much could lose. In the moment, we crave the underdog upset and root for the impossible to happen. Hype, Trap, Bet: How to handle heavy moneyline favoritesĮvery weekend, we watch upsets happen across all levels of football. You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browser

What does 900 mean in gambling